Large enough probability?
I’ve deliberately stayed away from the Brexit referendum (that is in terms of spending time doing some modelling to see what the predictions may be) $-$ mostly because I was otherwise busy and didn’t really have much time.
However, I was talking earlier to my “polls guy” Roberto (yes: I have a polls guy) and he’s suggested I took a look at Stephen Fisher’s blog, who is predicting a 72% chance that the outcome of the referendum will be “remain” (in the EU). I think I’ll take that as a good sign.
In the past couple of days, people have put forward the argument that the UK should take their economy back and “do like New Zealand in the 1980s $-$ that was very good for their economy, so surely it’ll work for us too”. [start rather annoyed irony]Surely the global economy and trading system were exactly what they are today, back in the 1980s, so surely this is super relevant evidence and something we should be basing our judgement on, today…[end rather annoyed irony]