The Oracle (2)
The World Cup is now under way, after an arguably fairly lacklustre performance by the host against a tough (if possibly a bit naive) Croatian team, still resulting in a 3-1 win for Brazil. I’ll try and comment on our predictions for the first few games as they go along and the observed result is actually revealed.
So, our model predicted a very likely win for Brazil
The observed 3-1 was a bit further down the plot, meaning it was a less likely outcome
Here’re the analyses for tonight’s games. The graphs show the contour plot of the bivariate joint distribution of goals scored by the two opponents (Mexico-Cameroon; Spain-Netherlands; Chile-Australia) in the left hand side and the histogram (or technically a bar plot) showing how likely each of the possible results are (according to the predicted outcomes).
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While probably more informative than the graphs we showed in our previous post, these are effectively in line with them. More comments later!